House of the Dragon Season 4: What the Book Predicts

It was already made clear by HBO that the season 4 finale will be the last episode of House of the Dragon for good, taking place somewhere in the year 2028. There are no known scene-by-scene analysis of which parts of George R.R. Martin’s Fire & Blood will be utilized for the show at the moment, but considering the fact that there are a lot more stories left untold, it’s safe to say that the show will not conclude without exploring the most brutal events of the war. And this fact makes the fans happy for two reasons the first being a really depressing news that things will become even more depressing from now on, and the second one being a sign that the ending will be a faithful one and thus will result in a non-stop series of episodes.

House of the Dragon Season 4 Might Focus On Second Battle Of Tumbleton

Tumbleton ends Season 3 smoking while Ulf the White is shown to be a man who is loyal to nobody. What is important to remember here: the series has already changed quite a bit from the source material, so what will follow is the path taken by the book, not by the series.

In the book, however, the demolition of Tumbleton happens in not one but two battles. In the first battle, Ulf White and Hugh Hammer switch sides completely and join the Greens to fight along with Daeron and his dragon Tessarion. Ulf rides Silverwing while Hugh commands the massive Vermithor. After all of that, the town is plundered. Some time later, after a specific duel by the lake, which turns the whole war upside down (we’ll come to that later), Addam Velaryon leads the Blacks to attack Tumbleton again. In this case, the battle is more messy: Jon Roxton kills Hugh Hammer, while Ulf, who is apparently sleeping during the whole mess, is killed with poison afterwards. Daeron does not live to see this battle either, and Vermithor and Tessarion die along with him. Silverwing survives.

However, it has changed Hugh so much in season three that guessing he will find himself precisely in this spot is more of a hunch than a certainty. Nevertheless, it is quite obvious that the story has not yet had its fill of this character. Kat’s death was no mere filler, and a dragonseed so detached from reality as Ulf does not have much time to live.

The Battle Above the Gods Eye

It has been in the reading list of book lovers for many years: the battle in the air between Daemon riding Caraxes and Aemond riding Vhagar that takes place above the water of Gods Eye lake. In books, the dragons fight by clashing with each other and plunging in the water in the middle of their fight, and then Daemon jumps off Caraxes and lands on Vhagar’s back and sticks Dark Sister sword into the hole which used to be Aemond’s eye, thus killing him instantly. Vhagar falls dead in the water. Caraxes survives and reaches shore but dies near Harrenhal soon afterwards.

Taking this beat to its logical conclusion would require the deaths of two of the most compelling characters on the show within the same scene – a big change, but one that isn’t entirely out of the question for a show which has shown itself to be more than happy to end with a killer twist. In the TV show, the obsession Aemond has had with Daemon since losing his eye back in Season 1 has been building up throughout, and knowing from the book that Daemon goes out of his way to find Aemond at Harrenhal only confirms what’s coming.

House of the Dragon Season 4 Marks Rhaenyra’s Fall From the Throne

It’s the beat that readers who have been with him for years prepare themselves for. In Fire & Blood, Martin describes how King’s Landing turns against Rhaenyra, and she ends up fleeing to Dragonstone where Aegon II catches her and feeds her to Sunfyre. This is among the darkest pieces of writing from Martin as Sunfyre consumes her leaving nothing much behind.

It is truly uncertain whether Season 4 will go this far, and all of the following is purely speculation, not anything confirmed by the production team. There have been a number of scenes in the novel that have been adjusted, toned down, or outright erased from the TV series, and D’Arcy’s rendition of Rhaenyra Targaryen is sympathetic enough for them to risk ruining their relationship with the viewers by adapting the most horrific scene of the book without any changes to it would be quite a gamble at the end of the series.

Cregan Stark and the Hour of the Wolf

It’s time for quick clarification about how Season 3 portrayed this: while the Winter Wolves who are appearing in this season are experienced northern warriors who are dedicated to the Blacks and accompany Roderick “Roddy the Ruin” Dustin rather than Daeron’s army, which may have been suggested by the Tumbleton conflict, Cregan Stark’s army is another much more substantial northern army that appears much later and ends the war in the book.

When the battles end, Cregan moves south, assumes the role of Hand to the new king Aegon III, and leads what Martin refers to as the Hour of the Wolf, an unforgiving time of revenge exacted upon the individuals most culpable for the atrocities of the war, Larys Strong being just one example. There is a certain inevitability in the final season that demands the arrival of a northern army in a ravaged capital city exacting some much-needed justice.

House of the Dragon Season 4: Aegon II’s Final Betrayal, and a New King

Fire & Blood ends on a bittersweet note for everyone concerned, including Aegon II. His reign does not persist because he is poisoned soon enough to give way to Aegon III as the new King of Westeros. This ending seems to be more of a tragedy than anything else because it sees the boy king take the throne after being supported by the regency council composed of people who have been trying to destroy each other’s family lines for the last ten years. If Season 4 takes things the same way as the books, then this will be how the Targaryen civil war ends.

What Helaena’s Visions Might Mean For House Of The Dragon Season 4

Lastly, one more strand to draw upon before wrapping things up: two of Helaena’s three Season 3 dreams are foreshadowing real-life occurrences from the book, though whether the series intended to make these connections on purpose is purely speculation on our end since HBO never said a thing about it.

The dream Helaena has where she gives her Dreamfyre dragon the command “dracarys” when it faces the mob that is attempting to storm the Dragonpit gates may very well be referring to the real Storming of the Dragonpit in Fire & Blood, where a demagogue named the Shepherd rouses the mob and the dragons that were caged are killed.

The one with childbirth has some ambiguity. For the novel, Helaena’s little boy, Maelor, is taken away from her and dies a terrible death at the hands of a mob; in the show, there is no mention of Maelor as he is entirely absent from the storyline. That being said, the dream may still refer to some sorrow, just not the particular one with Maelor involved.

Speaking of the snowy farm, all guesses are made right here, right now, nothing in Fire & Blood mentions it in connection with Aegon III’s peacefulness. It is a good guess, though.

House of the Dragon Season 4 will air on HBO and HBO Max in 2028. Better prepare your tissues and some dragon treats now.